A first look at the 2026 German Derby - Derby Dozen 0
- Luis Kimmel
- Mar 4
- 7 min read
Less than four months to go until the gates open for the 157th German Derby at Hamburg-Horn. I'm already taking a look at the race of races.
Currently, 89 horses are entered for the G1 IDEE 157th German Derby on 5 July 2026 at Hamburg-Horn. Twenty-three of them are trained by trainers from abroad. Once again, Joseph O'Brien from Ireland is training the majority of the foreign horses. His five candidates include HANDSHAKE (Sea The Moon), owned by Moritz Becher, Philip Baron von Ullmann and John Kortüm. The half-brother of G2 German 1000 Guineas winner HABANA (Kingman) recently won on his debut at Dundalk. Hamburg is his definite goal.
With 12 entries, Henk Grewe is the most strongly represented of all trainers. Four of these are owned by Eckhard Sauren, president of Cologne racecourse: LOMMI (Churchill), MELTING MOON (Sea The Moon), WEEKEND WARRIOR (Japan) and SANTA CATARINA (Zarak). Grewe trains three German Derby entered horses for the Liberty Racing syndicate: CHIEFLAND (Study Of Man), KAIROS (Zarak) and WINGS OF GLORY (Oasis Dream).
Overall, Lars-Wilhelm Baumgarten's syndicate appears most frequently in the entry list for the German Derby with six horses.
The clear favourite for this years Blue Riband is currently the undefeated GOSTAM (Saxon Warrior) from Andreas Wöhler's stable. He is owned by Darius Racing and Michael Motschmann. Darius Racing last won the Derby in 2021 with SISFAHAN. Five years earlier, his sire ISFAHAN (Lord Of England) was successful at Horn.
A question that always comes up at this time of year: have we already seen the Derby winner on the track? If you are convinced by the hype surrounding Gostam, then the answer is a resounding yes!
67 of the 89 horses mentioned have already raced. For the horses that have not yet raced, all that remains is to look at their pedigree. And when it comes to the Derby, it is clear that the sire often makes the difference.
Seven of the last nine Derby winners had a sire who himself won a Derby or was named German Horse of the Year. The only exceptions were the last two winners. However, PALLADIUM has an established stallion as his sire in GLENEAGLES (Galileo). So the only one who really breaks the mould is the reigning Derby winner HOCHKÖNIG. His sire POLISH VULCANO (Lomitas) was himself ‘only’ a Group 3 winner and, apart from Hochkönig, produced only one other Group winner in SIR POLSKI.
First group winner, then Derby winner?
You can't really do better than winning at group level at two. Are the conditions right for a victory at Hamburg?
In this millennium, only four subsequent Derby winners were successful in group races as two-year-olds: FANTASTIC MOON (Sea The Moon), ISFAHAN (Lord Of England), PASTORIUS (Soldier Hollow) and BUZZWORD (Pivotal). The first two won the G3 Preis des Winterfavoriten in 2022 and 2015, Pastorius won the G3 Herzog von Ratibor-Rennen in 2011, and Buzzword secured the G3 Prix La Rochette in France two years earlier.
There are three group winners on the entry list for the 2026 German Derby. A year ago, there were five horses that had already won at group level at this stage of their careers. LAZIO (Make Believe) then finished third in the Derby, making him the only one of the five to finish in the top places at Hamburg. The only three Group winners currently entered for this year's Derby are the aforementioned Winterfavorit Gostam, the winner of the G3 Herzog von Ratibor - Rennen Lommi and the french-trained WAYBREAKER (Galiway). Waybreaker won the G3 Prix de Conde Jockey Club du Turquie over 2000 metres at Saint-Cloud for Christopher Head.
Incidentally, Lommi was second to Gostam in the Winterfavorit before becoming a Group winner himself at Krefeld a few weeks later.
KAIROS (Zarak) and COMMAND THE STARS (Sea The Stars), trained by George Scott, won listed races last years. None of the last ten Derby winners could claim listed races at two. Bad omens for the two?
Listed races can still be decisive, however. One race in particular stands out. Sisfahan, WINDSTOSS (Shirocco) and LACCARIO (Scalo) all won the Düsseldorf Derby Trial before their Derby victory. The eventual Derby winner won this race three times in the last nine years before his victory at Hamburg.
Unraced Derby winners
Palladium and Hochkönig won their first race at the age of three. So there is no cause for concern if a horse has not yet achieved a victory, or perhaps has not even competed yet.
It has been six years since a horse won the German Derby without having raced as a two-year-old. IN SWOOP secured the Blue Riband in 2020 against TORQUATOR TASSO (both Adlerflug) for Gestüt Schlenderhan. For Schlenderhan, it was their 19th Derby victory – a record!
However, IN SWOOP was trained in France by Francis-Henri Graffard, which means that the last German winner without a two-year-old start is another five years further back. NUTAN (Duke Of Marmelade) won the Derby eleven years ago under Andrasch Starke for Stall Nizza. Joining the two mentioned above in this millennium are BOREAL (Java Gold), SHIROCCO (Monsun), SCHIAPARELLI (Monsun), WALDPARK (Dubawi) and LUCKY SPEED (Silvano) as Derby winners untested as two-year-olds.
Perhaps a good omen for horses such as AKTIVIST (Victor Ludorum), ALTER MEISTER (Japan), SWORD NATHAN (Nathaniel) or LONGHI (Sea The Moon)? All of them are still waiting to make their debut. Aktivist's dam AKRIBIE (Reliable Man) won the G2 Diana Trial for Gestüt Röttgen in 2019. Alter Meister is a half-brother to the 2021 Derby runner-up ALTER ADLER (Adlerflug). Sword Nathan's dam is the 2012 G3 Preis der Winterkönigin-Winner SWORDHALF (Haafdh). She has already produced two blacktype performers in SWORD PEINTURE (Peintre Celebre) and SATOMI (Teofilo). Satomi won the 2020 edition of the G2 Grosser Hansa-Preis against Derby winner Windstoss. Longhi is a half-brother to 2019 Derby winner Laccario and is being prepared for Gestüt Ittlingen by Arc-winning trainer Marcel Weiß.
Fillies Derby
Only twice since the end of the Second World War has there been a female winner of the Derby in Germany. In 1955, LUSTIGE (Ticino) won for the Buhmann brothers at Hamburg. Forty-two years later, another filly was successful in Germany's most important breeding race. The great BORGIA (Acatenango) went on to win the G1 125th Grosser Preis von Baden and placed in the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and the G1 Breeders Cup Turf. Two years later, she ended her career with a victory in the G2 Hong Kong International Vase.
Only three fillies are listed in this year's entry list for the Blue Riband. ASA NORTE (Protectionist) owned by Gestüt Ebbesloh is a half-sister to the classy miler ARCANDI (Zarak), who won two Group 3 races in Germany in 2024. Like Arcandi, Asa Norte is also trained by Peter Schiergen and, as a daughter of Melbourne Cup Winner Protectionist, is likely to have a little more stamina. Eckhard Sauren entered the Zarak-daughter SANTA CATARINA for Hamburg. In my article on the champions of the 2025 season, I have already written quite a bit about the Gestüt Ebbesloh bred filly. You can find more information here:
The third filly in the group is NOUVELLE FLEUR (Study Of Man), trained by Jan-Erik Neuroth. She has also been entered for the G2 106th German 1000 Guineas and the G1 168th Henkel-Preis der Diana - German Oaks.
Derby winner from Germany
All winners since 2011 have one thing in common: they were trained in Germany or were German-owned. Only In Swoop won the Blue Riband for a foreign trainer. Francis-Henri Graffard was Schlenderhan's trainer of choice at the time.
In general, German owners, trainers and breeders have a very good track record in the German Derby. Although five of the last 15 winners had a foreign country suffix, only one of them was bred outside Germany. Sisfahan was bred by Guy Pariente and was the only winner bred in France.
Lucky Speed, Nutan, In Swoop and SAMMARCO (Camelot) all carry the Irish suffix IRE. However, their breeders are Gestüt Hof Ittlingen, Jürgen Imm, Stall Ullmann and Gestüt Park Wiedingen.
Trainers, owners and breeders should come from Germany to score a direct hit at Hamburg. At least, that's what the statistics say. In addition to horses trained abroad, these statistics could also spell disaster for German horses such as DALYAN (Romanised), HELVETIOS (Study Of Man) and Lommi, all of which were bred abroad.
Liberty Racing could also face major problems with the statistics. Four of the six colts are not bred in Germany. Only DAYTONA (Gleneagles) and WINGS OF GLORY (Oasis Dream) where bred by german Gestüt Fährhof and Gestüt Park Wiedingen respectively.
Of course, this is all just theory at first. If you looked at each of the 89 horses, you would surely find a lot of statistical pros and cons for each one. I'm sure of that. But at Hamburg, things usually turn out differently.
It could have been very different in 2025. The runner-up, CONVERGENT (Fascinating Rock), would have been a real maverick in terms of most of the statistics mentioned: no black type as a two-year-old, foreign trainer, owner and breeder, and his sire, FASCINATING ROCK (Fastnet Rock), was not a classic winner or outstanding sire. Thankfully, he only came second, so we can continue to cling to statistics.
Who is your favourite for the Derby?
There is still a long way to go until the first Sunday in July. Winter offers time for numbers, pedigrees and first impressions. That is exactly what the GaloppDaily Derby Dozen is all about: a continuous inventory of the most promising candidates for the Blue Riband.
Important: All statistics and assessments mentioned refer to the status as of 1 March 2026.
Now I'm interested in your opinion: Who is your current favourite? Do you perhaps already have an insider tip for Hamburg? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments, on Instagram, Facebook or Twitter!
You can find the complete list of entries here:
Cover: Marc Rühl
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