A free for all - Derby Dozen II
- Luis Kimmel
- May 14
- 14 min read
With the Bavarian Classic, the first proper German Derby trial is now behind us. Did the race, which was run as a Group 2 event for the first time this year, live up to expectations? It’s hard to say. The winner had essentially been a foregone conclusion since October: GOSTAM (Saxon Warrior). Even if it was perhaps a little closer than expected in the end.
Alongside Gostam, we’ve seen other exciting contenders with their sights set on Hamburg. There have been disappointments, surprises, setbacks and everything else that comes with Derby season. I’ve taken another look at the remaining horses with entries for the G1 157th German Derby and adjusted my rankings based on what I’ve seen over the past few weeks.
1 - JAMES J BRADDOCK
Zarak x Burkina Faso (Mukhadram)
Owner: Aziz Kheir Aust Partners & Kevin Blake
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Breeder: Anita Wigan
Odds: 39/1
OR: No official rating after his G3 success. Probably around 106.
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 13
Things are really heating up in the Derby field. JAMES J BRADDOCK has taken the top spot in my rankings – a horse I had ranked outside the top 12 just a few weeks ago.
The son of ZARAK, trained by Joseph O’Brien, really made a name for himself just a few days ago when he beat the two Coolmore colts ENDORSEMENT (Wootton Bassett) and PIERRE BONNARD (Camelot) in a Group 3 race at Leopardstown.
Even if it was only a short head in the end, as the saying goes, it’s the effort that counts.
Following this surprise victory, James J Braddock will now continue his campaign in the G1 Epsom Derby. A start at Hamburg would probably only be considered if he performs appropriately. I’m thinking of places 4–8. Co-owner is the Irish racing expert Kevin Blake, who, alongside his work for Irish and British racing broadcasters, is responsible for race planning for Joseph O’Brien. Blake was also spotted at the 2025 yearling auction in Baden-Baden.
Last year, I had O’Brien’s protégé TENNESSEE STUD (Wootton Bassett) at the top of my rankings for a long time. He went on to place in the Epsom Derby. Whether James J Braddock is similarly good remains to be seen. At Hamburg, he need not shy away from any German horse.
2 - MALTESE CROSS
Sea The Stars x Nabatea (Camelot)
Owner: George Waud
Trainer: William Haggas
Breeder: Ecurie Du Sud & Ecurie Gribomont
Odds: 29/1
OR: No official rating after his listed success. Probably around 110.
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 3
Second place also goes to a racehorse trained abroad. MALTESE CROSS recently won the Lingfield Derby Trial (LR) in a hard-fought finish. In doing so, he left BALZAC (Japan), bred by german Günther Schmidt, a narrow seven lengths behind.
Maltese Cross also has German bloodlines in his pedigree. His dam NABATEA (Camelot) was bred by Jürgen Imm and has already produced a listed-placed mare in NAMOURIA (Adlerflug). Further up the family tree are class horses such as the outstanding broodmare NEELE (Peintre Celebre), who has sired no fewer than two Group 1 winners. Her son NUTAN (Duke Of Marmelade) won the German Derby for Stall Nizza in 2015.
Like James J Braddock, the next race on the agenda for the William Haggas-trained runner is the Epsom Derby. There, he is tipped to have at least a chance of a top-five finish. A start at Hamburg is, of course, never ruled out, but it is rather unlikely.
3 - WEEKEND WARRIOR
Japan x Whispering Angel (Soldier Hollow)
Owner: Eckhard Sauren
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Breeder: Gestüt Park Wiedingen
Odds: 14/1
OR: 80
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 11
The first German contender is named WEEKEND WARRIOR. His career so far as a three-year-old bears a slight resemblance to that of last years Derby winner HOCHKÖNIG (Polish Vulcano). Contrary to expectations, following his impressive victory in March, Weekend Warrior was not entered in a Black Type race, but instead faced relatively modest opposition at Hoppegarten last Sunday.
His run at Mülheim in March has since been upgraded several times. The runner-up at the time, LANDOLFO (Japan), went on to win at Lyon-Parilly, whilst the fourth-placed horse, NIGHT SESSION (Waldpfad), won at Munich on 1 May. The third-placed horse, VARLEY (Japan), also went on to show two promising performances.
At Hoppegarten, Weekend Warrior prevailed over his stablemate MELTING MOON (Sea The Moon). The latter arrived fresh from a victory at Strasbourg. Weekend Warrior is now likely to continue his campaign in the G2 Sparkasse KölnBonn Union-Rennen, Germanys version of the G2 Dante Stakes.
Weekend Warrior’s dam, WHISPERING ANGEL (Soldier Hollow), won the G3 Preis der Winterkönigin in 2018 and has already produced a 113 rated racehorse in WILKO (Mastercraftsman). Two years ago, Wilko won the G3 Bavarian Classic and finished second in the G3 JRA Derby Trial before placing seventh in the Derby. Last year, he first won the listed Preis von Dahlwitz. He finished second in the G2 Grosser Preis von Tattersalls at Baden-Baden. In 2026, he won the Preis von Dahlwitz again at Hoppegarten in very convincing fashion.
4 - ALL SQUARE
Gleneagles x Amazona (Dubawi)
Owner: Gestüt Schlenderhan
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Gestüt Schlenderhan
Odds: 24/1
OR: 82
Position in the last Derby Dozen: Not yet run
Even though he ‘only’ finished second in his second start as the overwhelming favourite (1/2), ALL SQUARE’s performances so far have been enough to secure him fourth place in my Derby Dozen.
On his debut on Easter Monday in Cologne, the Schlenderhaner kept pushing on at the front. “What on earth is that? A name for every betting slip: All Square,” commented racecaller Marvin Schridde on this spectacle at Weidenpesch.
The pedigree of Peter Schiergen’s charge is also spectacular. His sire GLENEAGLES (Galileo) sired 2024 Derby winner PALLADIUM. All Square’s dam AMAZONA (Dubawi) won a Group 3 race over 2050 metres at Krefeld in 2016 for Stall Ullmann. Her first foal, AGUIRRE (Camelot), was placed several times at Group level.
Surprisingly, for All Square’s second start, the decision was made to enter him in a handicap. Nine opponents stood in his way in a Class II against older horses. At the ludicrous odds of 1/2 he was only beaten by the four-year-old DANYLOV (Bated Breath). However, the latter is likely to have some room for improvement, meaning All Square certainly did not disgrace himself here either, especially as the race did not go perfectly. Options ahead of the Derby are now the G3 JRA Derby Trial at Baden-Baden or the G2 Sparkasse KölnBonn - Union Rennen in just over four weeks’ time.
5 - WILD RIVER
Lope De Vega x Wildfeder (Galileo)
Owner: Stall Hanse & Klaus Allofs & Michael Motschmann
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Gestüt Ammerland
Odds: 49/1
OR: 74
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 7
WILD RIVER hasn’t even made his debut as a three-year-old yet, and yet he’s jumped two places in my rankings. Why? Because I’m still on the hunt for THE standout horse of the crop. At the moment, it seems as though anyone could beat anyone, and that worries me a little when it comes to the quality of the crop.
Meanwhile, the son of LOPE DE VEGA is listed at a staggering 49/1 on pferdewetten.de. Probably a sign that people don’t expect Peter Schiergen’s charge to actually turn up at Hamburg.
At the moment, Wild River has only one entry for the G2 Union-Rennen ahead of the Derby. It’s hard to imagine that they’d want to start the season here.
On the positive side: he has also been entered for the G1 Grosser Preis von Baden in September.
Let’s take a brief look back at his career so far. He made his debut last September, still sporting the world-famous red and green colours of Gestüt Ammerland. Wild River is now owned by Stall Hanse, Klaus Allofs and Michael Motschmann.
On that debut, the powerful Lope De Vega son finished third behind SOMI (Magna Grecia) and TRUE LION (Amaron). His second start and first victory is what gives me hope for more. On that occasion, he beat my current number 3, Weekend Warrior. Wild River comfortably relegated him to second place in his victory in November.
Wild River’s pedigree is outstanding. There is little more to say about Lope De Vega, himself a Derby winner in France 16 years ago. Sire of 25 individual Group 1 winners.
Wild River’s dam, Wildfeder, is a full sister to the Arc winner WALDGEIST (Galileo), who stands at Gestüt Lünzen.
6 - GOSTAM
Saxon Warrior x Goiania (Oasis Dream)
Owner: Darius Racing & Michael Motschmann
Trainer: Andreas Wöhler
Breeder: Stiftung Gestüt Fährhof
Odds: 15/2
OR: 112
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 6
As for Gostam, there isn’t much more to say at the moment than there was 1.5 months ago. He is clearly the best three-year-old in Germany, and I believe he can show a rating of at least 112 on the international stage. His next race will now be the G1 Prix du Jockey Club, the French Derby.
Whether he comes to Hamburg after that is still up in the air, and although I remain unconvinced that the SAXON WARRIOR son can really handle 2400m, I am increasingly in favour of a start in the German Derby.
Should my hunch prove correct that the 2026 three-year-old crop is rather mixed, Gostam could still finish right up there at the front even without great staying power.
The logical major target, however, should certainly be the G1 Großer Dallmayr Preis over 2000 metres at Munich at the end of July.
And since there is nothing new to report on Gostam, I shall devote the next few lines to the Bavarian capital. Whilst Hanover and Leipzig recorded 21,800 and 13,500 spectators respectively on 1 May, the Munich Racing Club managed to attract just 6,000 people to watch Germany’s biggest Derby hopefuls live. And this despite the fact that they had a new Group 2 race on the card in the form of the Bavarian Classic.
In February, the governing body Deutscher Galopp stated: “By upgrading the Bavarian Classic to a Group 2 race, we are making another significant statement on the road to the German Derby. The race has proven its relevance and quality over the years.”
Let’s do the maths: over the last five years, the Bavarian Classic has achieved the following ratings: 109–108,75–110,75–108,75–101,25. The average over this period was 107,7.
The rating of 110 required for Group 2 races has been achieved once in the last five years. The rating is based on the annual OR of the top four finishers in the respective race.
There are four major Derby trials in Germany. The Bavarian Classic, the G3 JRA Derby Trial at Baden-Baden, the Düsseldorf Derby Trial (LR) and the G2 Union-Rennen at Cologne.
The last Derby winner to also win the Munich highlight was ISFAHAN (Lord Of England) in 2016.
Baden-Baden last saw the eventual Derby winner in 2023; in Düsseldorf, the Derby winner has won the listed race twice since 2016; the Union has even been won three times by the Derby winner since then, most recently in 2022.
To cut a long story short, the Bavarian Classic is a great race, but it certainly shouldn’t be a Group 2 event. This year alone, it will be difficult to achieve the required rating of 110 by the end of the year. This is partly because the fourth-placed TAILWIND (Windstoss) is unlikely to improve his rating (101) any further this year due to injury. Mathematically, this means the top three finishers must now each achieve a rating of at least 113 in average. A scenario that has not occurred even once in the last five years, at least. Or perhaps Gostam will save the Munich Racing Club with a victory in the Prix du Jockey Club and prove me and my calculations wrong.
Either way, we should focus more on making the product of ‘horse racing’ more attractive, rather than artificially inflating the value of races.
7 - WESTMINSTER ROCKET
Golden Horn x Ten Thousand Stars (Toronado)
Owner: Westminster Stud GmbH
Trainer: Andreas Wöhler
Breeder: Saxtead Livestock Ltd.
Odds: 14/1
OR: 100
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 34
A new face on the Derby scene is Westminster Stud’s WESTMINSTER ROCKET. He made a name for himself on 2 May with an impressive victory in the Premio Emanuele Filiberto (LR) over 2000 metres at Milan. In doing so, he easily left my previous number one, KAIROS (Zarak), trailing behind him.
So far, the son of GOLDEN HORN has only been seen in action in Poland and Italy, so his form should certainly be treated with caution.
But it wasn’t just the manner of his victory at Milan that I liked very much; the winning time of 2:02.05 for the 2000-metre distance was also very strong. By way of comparison: Gostam took over five seconds longer to cover the same distance the day before at Munich!
Westminster Rocket’s sire GOLDEN HORN (Cape Cross) was himself an outstanding three-year-old. In 2015, he won, among other races, the G1 Epsom Derby, the G1 Coral Eclipse, the G1 Irish Champion Stakes and the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. He also finished second in the G1 Juddmonte International and the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
He is the sire of G1 Ascot Gold Cup winner TRAWLERMAN and Italian Derby winner GOLDENAS. The G2 Derby Italiano is now set to be Westminster Rocket’s next stop on the road to Hamburg-Horn.
8 - KAIROS
Zarak x Kosmische (Fastnet Rock)
Owner: Liberty Racing 2024 Platin
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Breeder: Rashit Shaykhutdinov
Odds: 29/1
OR: 101
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 1
Liberty Racing’s KAIROS has suffered a significant drop in my rankings. He had been my undisputed number one since his debut victory in September.
The ZARAK son kicked off his three-year-old campaign in the Premio Emanuele Filiberto at Milan and, as the 13/10 favourite, disappointed by finishing fourth.
Liberty Racing founder and, most recently, Spiegel bestselling author Lars-Wilhelm Baumgarten analysed the race afterwards for GaloppOnline: “It was certainly a disappointment today. Kairos seems to be a horse that can maintain a high pace for a long time, but lacks that explosive acceleration over the final 200 metres. The ground was probably not soft enough for Kairos. He produced his best performance last year at Hanover on heavy going. It is also questionable what his two-year-old form was really worth, given that Abachi also fell slightly short of expectations the day before. The Italian Derby is now rather unlikely. At Liberty Racing, we always believe in miracles.”
I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a miracle just yet; his performances in 2025 were simply too impressive to suggest otherwise. Even though ABACHI (Japan) fell slightly short of expectations with a fifth-place finish in the G2 Bavarian Classic. But for him, too, it was the first start of the year.
I’m far from writing Kairos off, particularly because he is one of the few horses who will definitely be able to staay the 2400 metres required in the Derby. It’s just that I can’t quite understand the choice of his next race. The G2 Derby Italiano will be skipped following his poor performance at Milan. Alternatively, he will be entered in the Union-Rennen, which is also a Group 2 race and hardly any easier. As for the logical choice: Kairos was not entered for the G3 JRA Derby Trial at Baden-Baden. Nor, for that matter, was any other Liberty Racing runner. In 2023, FANTASTIC MOON (Sea The Moon) won this race ahead of his triumph in the Derby. AQUAMAN (Cracksman) finished third for Liberty Racing last year.
9 - ALTER MEISTER
Japan x Artemisia (Peintre Celebre)
Owner: Stall Nizza
Trainer: Waldemar Hickst
Breeder: Stall Nizza
Odds: 19/1
OR: No rating yet
Position in the last Derby Dozen: Not yet run
The more I watch ALTER MEISTER’s debut victory, the more confidence I have in him. And in a few hours’ time, he could make another big statement. He’s running today, Thursday, in a well-contested listed race at Longchamp. A place in the top three would probably catapult him into my top five.
I’m still on the hunt for THE Derby horse. Alter Meister could be that horse. So far, he has made one start, winning in fine style on his debut at Lyon-Parilly against decent opposition. The runner-up, SWIFT MAGIC (Frankel), won a race at Chantilly just yesterday by 2.5 lengths.
Alter Meister is a half-brother to 2021 Derby runner-up ALTER ADLER (Adlerflug). The latter was also prepared by Waldemar Hickst for the Nizza stable.
Alter Adler’s path to the Derby at the time also led exclusively through France. Like his younger brother, he did not make his debut until April. He finished second in each of his first two starts before winning on his third and fourth outings. In the Derby, he started as the favourite.
This evening, we will know more about Alter Meister’s capabilities. On paper, the Nizza colt makes a lot of sense as the Derby winner.
10 - SALITOS
In Swoop x Sacre Fleur (Acclamation)
Owner: Liberty Racing 2024 Gold
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Klaus Schöler
Odds: 19/1
OR: 88
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 8
Even in what has felt like a rather mixed year for Liberty Racing, two of their horses have made it into my top 10 so far. Following Kairos in eighth place comes SALITOS.
The Peter Schiegen-trained horse made his debut on 27 December on the all weather track at Chantilly. He really picked up pace in the final metres and finished second. The winner of that race went on to win another race at Paris Longchamp.
Salitos’s first victory came two months later in his second career start at Fontainebleau. In the home straight, he initially had to make room for himself, but then really turned it on and pulled away easily by 2.25 lengths. The IN SWOOP son made his third start in a Class 1 at Saint-Cloud. He finished in a respectable second place here. However, the truth is that he would probably only have finished third had the co-favourite and well-performing TONNANT (Romanised) not collided with the rails in the home straight. As a result, TONNANT lost all his momentum and finished behind Salitos.
Salitos is set to head to Milan next for the G2 Derby Italiano.
11 - LIMESTONE
New Bay x Modernstone (Duke Of Marmelade)
Owner: Valmont & Ballylinch Stud & Al Shaqab Racing
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Breeder: Ballylinch Stud
Odds: 39/1
OR: 98
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 10
Next in the rankings is another horse from Ireland. The three-year-old colt, trained by Joseph O’Brien, has raced just once so far. Over 2100m in Cork, he faced rather modest opposition, but the manner of his victory was impressive. Limestone became increasingly dominant as the race progressed.
In addition to an entry for the G1 German Derby, he also holds entries for the Epsom and Irish Derbies. He could secure his ticket to Epsom this coming Saturday at Navan in a listed contest. Depending on his performance, we will also have a clearer idea of his chances of a start at Hamburg.
His trainer won the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin in 2024 with AL RIFFA (Wootton Bassett).
Limestone’s dam, MODERNSTONE (Duke Of Marmelade), had a OR of 99 and produced LONE EAGLE (Galileo), who finished second in the G1 Irish Derby in 2021.
12 - LOMMI
Churchill x La Sabara (Sabiango)
Owner: Eckhard Sauren
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Breeder: Randolph Peters
Odds: 19/1
OR: 106
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 16
LOMMI is the third Group winner in my top 12. However, I’m not quite convinced by this son of CHURCHILL, trained by Henk Grewe. As a two-year-old, Lommi was already among the best of his crop. At Krefeld, he won the last Group race of the year by a clear margin. That said, the opposition on the day was hardly top-class.
Things looked very different, however, in the G2 Bavarian Classic, in which Lommi kicked off his 2026 season. There, alongside high-flyer Gostam, he faced several other highly promising runners, all of whom – with the exception of Gostam and Abachi – had already made their debut.
Lommi put in a more than creditable performance at Munich, finishing second. Despite putting up a fight, he had little to say against Gostam. The latter was ridden with just a light touch. In third place came PEACE OF JAPAN (Japan), a horse from whom one can expect further improvement.
In three Group-level starts, Lommi has now finished second on two occasions. In both the aforementioned Bavarian Classic and the G3 Preis des Winterfavoriten in October, his conqueror was Gostam.
Lommi’s next outing will be the G3 JRA Derby-Trial at Baden-Baden. He will not face Gostam there.
Where on earth is...?
As the name suggests, the Derby Dozen features only my top 12. But of course, I’ve given all the horses some thought. Here, I’d like to mention a few more names that some of you might be wondering about.
14 ENGLISHMAN (Nathaniel) - Gestüt Ittlingen - Marcel Weiss
18 ABACHI (Japan) - Stall Nizza - Peter Schiergen
21 MYSTIC CHARLY (Circus Maximus) - Stall Mandarin - Andreas Wöhler
23 SPEZIALIST (Protectionist) - Stall Mandarin - Yasmin Almenräder
25 WALADARES (Gleneagles) - Gestüt Ebbesloh - Sarah Steinberg
26 DASTAN (Reliable Man) - Darius Racing - Bohumil Nedorostek
That’s all from me for now. Of course, every ranking is just a snapshot. Once Alter Meister gets underway today, the picture will look very different indeed. Either way, we’ve got some exciting weeks ahead of us leading up to Hamburg.
Especially in a year when it seems as though anyone could beat anyone, it’s quite possible that a horse hardly anyone is thinking about today could turn up right at the front in the Derby...
If you’d like to look back at last year, you can find my Derby Dozen II from 2025 here: Bavarian Classic Afterparty
If you’d like to see more insights into german racing, why not follow me on Twitter / Instagram / Facebook / TikTok!
Luis Kimmel
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