It’s all set – German Derby 2026 – Derby Dozen III
- Luis Kimmel
- 1 day ago
- 14 min read
Just a two more nights to go until Derby Day at Hamburg. It’s the last major Derby in Europe that hasn’t yet been decided. Nineteen horses are set to line up on Sunday, 5 July. Even though this section is called ‘Derby Dozen’, today I’m providing an overview of all the runners. They’re listed, however, in order of ability according to my assessment.
Group 1 - German Derby - 2400 meter - July 5th - Hamburg
As was the case last year, it will be an international G1 IDEE 157 German Derby. The past few days have been somewhat reminiscent of 2025. Once again, it was Ballydoyle who really breathed new life into the Derby scene. The reason was the late entry of two colts who had earned free entry through their placings in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club. On Tuesday afternoon, however, the all-clear was given: no Coolmore horses at Hamburg!
Another foreign horse will, however, be taking up the free entry. Bay Of Brilliance, trained by Ralph Beckett in in the UK, is making his way to the Hanseatic city to take on the 18 German contenders.
1 - GOSTAM
Saxon Warrior x Goiania (Oasis Dream)
Owner: Darius Racing & Michael Motschmann
Trainer: Andreas Wöhler
Breeder: Stiftung Gestüt Fährhof
Odds: 6,0
OR: 112
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 6
Jockey: Eduardo Pedroza
Starting stall: 17
If Gostam can stay the required distance of 2,400 metres, he should be the winner! Of all the contenders for the Blue Riband, the son of Saxon Warrior has been the most impressive so far. Even in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club – the French Derby, long regarded as his ultimate target – he performed better than his eighth-place finish might suggest. He didn’t have a perfect run, yet in the end he was beaten by just under five lengths by the winner. A performance that can certainly be rated with 112. And that is a real feat for a German three-year-old at this time of year.
Gostam remains unbeaten in four starts in Germany. As a two-year-old, he won the G3 152. Renate and Albrecht Woeste – Zukunfts-Rennen, he also won Germany’s most important race for the youngest age group: the G3 Wettstar.de Preis des Winterfavoriten at Cologne. As a three-year-old, he built on his successes and effortlessly won the G2 Wettstar.de Bavarian Classic. A performance which, in hindsight, however, was hardly given its due.
This was in contrast to his performance in the French Derby. At Chantilly, the medium-sized question mark hanging over Gostam’s staying power was at least slightly diminished when he managed to make up a fair amount of ground again towards the end. For Sunday, his camp will be hoping for slightly softer going than in France.
As far as German racing and the Derby are concerned, one can only hope that Andreas Wöhler’s charge is the star everyone has always believed him to be, and that he won’t run out of steam on the long straight at Hamburg.
Ahead of the French Derby, I spoke to Darius Racing’s racing manager, Holger Faust, about Gostam. Click here for the interview: Prix du Gostam
2 - BAY OF BRILLIANCE
New Bay x Incroyable (Singspiel)
Owner: Valmont & Aziz Kheir Aust Partners
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Breeder: C&s Bloodstock Ltd & Kt Bloodstock
Odds: 5,5
OR: 107
Position in the last Derby Dozen: Got supplemented
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Starting stall: 6
The only foreign entrant in this year’s German Derby comes from Ralph Beckett’s stable. Bay Of Brilliance recently finished a strong fourth in the G1 Epsom Derby and, for that reason alone, is set to attract a great deal of support at the betting counters.
A fast track would be ideal for the New Bay colt. Whilst this is unlikely to materialise, conditions are expected to be far more suitable than they were just over four weeks ago at Epsom, when the track was already very soft.
Perhaps even more impressive than his Derby performance is Bay Of Brilliance’s penultimate run, when, after a long battle, he crossed the line just a head behind MALTESE CROSS (Sea The Stars). Maltese Cross went on to finish a strong second in the Epsom Derby.
Bay Of Brilliance has won two of his five starts to date. As a two-year-old, he didn’t really reveal much, even though he won a Class 5 race by 8.5 lengths in October. As a three-year-old, however, he has really come into his own. He arrives at Hamburg on the back of two strong performances and will be the yardstick against which we can measure the 2026 German three-year-old crop.
3 - ENGLISHMAN
Nathaniel x Eleni (Kendargent)
Owner: Gestüt Ittlingen
Trainer: Marcel Weiß
Breeder: Gestüt Hof Ittlingen
Odds: 4,5
OR: 108
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 14
Jockey: Sibylle Vogt
Starting stall: 5
Englishman is the sudden rising star on the German racing scene. The Gestüt Ittlingen-bred colt remains unbeaten in two starts and made a powerful impression on his debut. He took a while to get going, but then pulled away easily to win by almost three lengths ahead of Varley. A further 7.5 lengths back, Four Seasons (Japan) finished third. Both will face Englishman again in the Derby.
In a very open G2 Sparkasse KölnBonn – 191st Union Rennen, Germany’s most important Derby trial, Englishman prevailed in a similar fashion, once again leaving Varley (eighth place) behind.
Westminster Rocket, Kairos, Spezialist and Abachi will now attempt to turn this form around somehow at Hamburg.
The colt, trained by Arc-winning trainer Marcel Weiß, will certainly not falter when it comes to stamina. He could easily go another 400 meters. Following his victory in the Union-Rennen, Englishman has been assigned a handicap mark of 108. By my reckoning, this is a bit of a stretch. Nevertheless, I reckon he’s capable of a strong run at Hamburg. He and Gostam stand out most clearly from the German field.
4 - KAIROS
Zarak x Kosmische (Fastnet Rock)
Owner: Liberty Racing 2024 Platin
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Breeder: Rashit Shaykhutdinov
Odds: 18,0
OR: 104
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 8
Jockey: Leon Wolff
Starting stall: 8
From his debut victory in September 2025 until early May, Kairos was my undisputed number one.
The ZARAK colt then kicked off his three-year-old campaign in the listed Premio Emanuele Filiberto in Milan, where he disappointed as the 1.3:1 favourite by finishing fourth.
Liberty Racing founder Lars-Wilhelm Baumgarten analysed the race afterwards: “That was certainly a disappointment today. Kairos seems to be a horse that can maintain a fast pace for a long time, but lacks that explosive burst of speed over the final 200 metres. The ground was probably not soft enough for Kairos. He produced his best performance last year at Hanover on heavy going.”
Thankfully, however, Kairos was able to bounce back in the G2 Union -Rennen, where he showed a marked improvement on his performance at Milan and finished third behind Englishman and Westminster Rocket. Whilst he was still 5.5 lengths behind Westminster Rocket at Milan, he reduced that gap to just three-quarters of a length at Cologne.
For me, following his performance at Cologne, Kairos remains a highly interesting contender for Hamburg. The required Derby distance will pose no problem for him. He, too, would likely welcome a bit more rain in the run-up to the Derby.
5 - WESTMINSTER ROCKET
Golden Horn x Ten Thousand Stars (Toronado)
Owner: Westminster Stud GmbH
Trainer: Andreas Wöhler
Breeder: Saxtead Livestock Ltd.
Odds: 9,0
OR: 105
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 7
Jockey: David Liska
Starting stall: 15
A new star in the Derby firmament had appeared out of nowhere: Westminster Stud’s Westminster Rocket. He made a name for himself on 2 May with an impressive victory in the Premio Emanuele Filiberto (LR) over 2000 metres at Milan. In doing so, he left Kairos, amongst others, slightly behind.
Previously, the Golden Horn son had only been seen in action in Poland and Italy, so his form up to that point had to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Westminster Rocket proved he was no flash in the pan in the now much-discussed G2 Union -Rennen, when he led from the front and was only caught late on by the closing Englishman. In doing so, he finished ahead of Kairos, Spezialist, Abachi and Varley, amongst others.
I haven’t quite been able to make sense of the second horse from Andreas Wöhler’s stable so far. I still have a slight doubt about his staying power, particularly if he is to be tried from the front at Hamburg as well.
Last year’s runner-up in the Union-Rennen was HOCHKÖNIG (Polish Vulcano), who, as is well known, went on to win the Derby. Incidentally, Westminster Rocket has something else in common with Hochkönig: both have been entered for the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe! The same applies to Gostam, too.
6 - ABACHI
Japan x Amora (High Chaparral)
Owner: Stall Nizza
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Ursula & Jürgen Imm
Odds: 26,0
OR: 100
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 18
Jockey: Benjamin Marie
Starting stall: 10
Next up is a ‘safe’ stayer. Abachi also really put himself back in the spotlight after the G2 Union-Rennen. He had hardly any room on the rails when it came down to it. In my opinion, if the race goes better, he’ll always finish at least fourth. As it was, he finished seventh and will therefore probably go into the race with what are perhaps the most attractive odds.
His owners won the Derby eleven years ago with NUTAN (Duke Of Marmelade). Five years ago, they narrowly missed out on first place with ALTER ADLER (Adlerflug).
Abachi’s older brother, ALPENJÄGER (Nutan), was long considered one of the Derby favourites in 2023, but then missed the race due to injury.
Abachi won as a two-year-old on his second start. He was beaten by Kairos on both of his other starts. He made his 2026 season debut on 1 May in the G2 Bavarian Classic, where he failed to perform to his full potential.
Whether he really has what it takes to win will be revealed on Sunday. With a bit more luck at Cologne, he might even be available at half price on Sunday.
7 - CHIEFLAND
Study Of Man x Casuarina (Sea The Moon)
Owner: Liberty Racing 2024 Gold
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Breeder: Stephen Lanigan-O'Keeffe
Odds: 30,0
OR: 98
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 20
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Starting stall: 18
Liberty Racing is aiming for its third Derby victory. Following successes with FANTASTIC MOON (Sea The Moon) and PALLADIUM (Gleneagles) in 2023 and 2024, the syndicate is entering no fewer than four horses in the race of all races in 2026. I’ve already introduced the first of the lot: Kairos. Now let’s move on to a slightly darker horse: Chiefland. All the German horses I’ve covered so far have raced against one another at some point (except Gostam, but everyone knows how good he is).
It’s a different story with Chiefland. He has won twice from three starts. He beat Spezialist quite comfortably on his debut. As a three-year-old, he was beaten by a major outsider, who was, however, carrying three kilos less.
In his next start, the Study Of Man son was back on the winning track at listed level. He comfortably prevailed over Guevara over 2200 metres. From a handicapper’s perspective, Chiefland is a very interesting case. In that Listed race, he finished just 1.25 lengths ahead of Guevara. Guevara had previously finished last without a chance at Group 2 level. At the same time, Chiefland finished 2.5 lengths ahead of HELVETIOS (Study Of Man), who in turn finished just 1.5 lengths behind Kairos in the G2 Union-Rennen and took fifth place.
And so, when it comes to Chiefland, I have to rely more on what I’ve seen and less on what’s in the form guides. As far as I’m concerned, the Liberty Racing runner still has plenty of room for improvement and is far from having shown his full potential.
Chiefland’s dam, Casuarina (Sea The Moon), is a full sister to Group 1 winner DURSTON. He won the 2022 Caulfield Cup in Australia over 2400 metres.
8 - SALITOS
In Swoop x Sacre Fleur (Acclamation)
Owner: Liberty Racing 2024 Gold
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Klaus Schöler
Odds: 12,0
OR: 108
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 10
Jockey: Bauyrzhan Murzabayev
Starting stall: 7
Slowly but surely, we’re moving into the ‘promising outsiders’ category. I just can’t quite warm to Salitos. His form in France has hardly been upgraded, and in the G2 Derby Italiano at Milan, he ran out of steam after 2200 metres on a heavy track. Germany’s record in the Italian Derby is impressive. ARDAKAN (Reliable Man) and BORNA (Saxon Warrior) have won the race in recent years. Borna even won by 2.5 lengths. At Hamburg, he managed second place. Ardakan finished ‘only’ eighth.
Why should the third-placed horse from Italy now be able to win in Germany? Especially as he had a tough race at Milan. A race that hasn’t been upgraded in any way since then. The winner subsequently failed to make an impact at Royal Ascot, the runner-up finished fourth out of five in a Group 3 race in Italy, and the fifth-placed horse from the Italian classic came a disappointing 13th in the G2 Oaks d’Italia on her next start.
Nevertheless, the fact remains: Salitos is Bauyrzhan Murzabayev’s choice; Salitos is a stayer, and should it rain heavily again, he too will have his chances. However, he must first prove himself at his current handicap mark of 108. Maybe he will can with a brilliant ride from Murzabayev in Hamburg.
9 - SPEZIALIST
Protectionist x Sharin (Areion)
Owner: Stall Mandarin
Trainer: Yasmin Almenräder
Breeder: Gestüt Röttgen
Odds: 50,0
OR: 100
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 23
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
Starting stall: 9
Spezialist has a record of one win from five starts and will be saddled by defending champion Yasmin Almenräder. Almenräder won the 2025 Derby as the trainer of Hochkönig.
Spezialist was bred by Gestüt Röttgen. His sire, PROTECTIONIST (Monsun), won the 2014 Melbourne Cup and, last year, sired LAZY GRIFF, who finished second in the G1 Epsom Derby and third in the G1 Irish Derby.
Spezialist caught my eye as early as the 2024 BBAG yearling sale. No other horse at Baden-Baden appealed to me more. For that reason alone, I’m hoping for a good run. However, he hasn’t quite hit his stride yet.
Most recently, he put in a decent performance, finishing sixth in the G2 Union-Rennen. The extra 200 metres in Hamburg will suit him. It could also be, however, that Spezialist has already reached the peak of his ability.
10 - LOUCAS
Best Solution x Lucy Lou (Soldier Hollow)
Owner: Gestüt Ittlingen
Trainer: Waldemar Hickst
Breeder: Gestüt Hof Ittlingen
Odds: 30,0
OR: 107
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 29
Jockey: Thore Hammer-Hansen
Starting stall: 3
Arguably the dark horse of this year’s Derby. Loucas has consistently demonstrated his quality in his five starts to date. He has never finished lower than third, and in his most recent race, following an unfortunate incident, he may even have been beaten below his true ability. That was in the G2 Coolmore City of Troy German 2000 Guineas, shown below. On that day, he demonstrated that, at least over a mile, he can hold his own against strong foreign opposition. For me, he is currently number two among German three-year-olds, behind Gostam. But that was over the ‘wrong’ distance.
Class is clearly not the issue with Loucas. But does he have the staying power? His pedigree suggests ‘probably yes’. His sire, BEST SOLUTION (Kodiac), won several Group 1 races over 2400 metres; whilst his dam, LUCY LOU, never raced herself, she is by SOLDIER HOLLOW (In The Wings), who generally passes on sufficient stamina for the Derby. Loucas’s wider family includes the good to excellent stayers LOFT and LORDANO (both by Adlerflug), LOVELYN (Tiger Hill) and, with LANDO (Acatenango) and LAROCHE (Nebos), even two German Derby winners.
Loucas has never yet raced over a distance longer than 1700 metres. In fact, he has won exclusively over 1400 metres so far. If the Derby distance required at Hamburg does not pose a problem for him, he will finish right at the front.
11 - QUITOS
Iquitos x Quendolina (Helmet)
Owner: Gestüt Paschberg
Trainer: Christian Sprengel
Breeder: Gestüt Paschberg
Odds: 40,0
OR: 97
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 36
Jockey: Oliver Wilson
Starting stall: 19
Quitos has made a huge leap up my rankings. In mid-May he was still in 36th place, but now he’s cracked the Derby Dozen! There are obvious reasons why this colt bred and owned by Gestüt Paschberg has suddenly found himself among the frontrunners. But first things first.
As a two-year-old, Quitos made one start and finished last. As a three-year-old, on his debut for the season, he showed for the first time that he might indeed possess some real class. After leading from the front for most of the race, he was only beaten late on by the fine AKTIVIST (Victor Ludorum). In his next start, however, came another setback: seventh out of eight. And so the performance that ultimately qualified him for Hamburg came, so to speak, at the very last gallop.
The final Derby Trial of the year was the Hoffnungspreis (LR) at Dortmund. Quitos went into the race as the biggest outsider and left the track as an impressive winner. At the 200-metre mark, Christian Sprengel’s charge was still almost four lengths behind the three leading horses. But then Quitos really turned it on and went on to win comfortably. Visually, this was perhaps the most impressive victory of the pre-Derby season. The only question, of course, is what the opposition were capable of on that day at Dortmund. The runner-up, Dardanos, will now be faced again in the Derby.
Quitos’ sire, IQUITOS (Adlerflug), sired Mr Hollywood, who finished second in the Derby three years ago.
12 - DARDANOS
Soldier Hollow x Delegation (Mount Nelson)
Owner: Stall Bergholz
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Breeder: Barbara Holubova
Odds: 40,0
OR: 95
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 55
Jockey: Wladimir Panov
Starting stall: 4
Last but not least: Dardanos. His older brother DELGARDO (Best Solution) put in a creditable performance on Thursday, finishing third in a Group 3 race at Hamburg. In the 2025 German Derby, Delgardo was one of the favourites but finished eleventh after an unfavourable run.
Dardanos secured his place in the Derby, as did Quitos – listed one place above him – in the season’s final Derby Trial. The Soldier Hollow son finished second behind Quitos. In five starts, Dardanos has won once so far. That was in mid-May over 2050 metres against a filly who could still improve.
As a two-year-old, the colt trained by Andreas Wöhler showed even less promise: fourth, third, fifth. Dardanos finished fifth in a listed race at the time, finishing over 30 lengths behind Kairos and Abachi.
I can’t quite picture Dardanos as the Derby winner, but I like the improvement he’s shown in recent months and I therefore believe he’s capable of a good run at Hamburg. However, he doesn’t yet seem to quite have the class of his older brother.
That’s usually where the Derby Dozen ends, but as the race of all races is just around the corner, here are the remaining contenders. In a slightly quicker run-through.
13 - VARLEY
Japan x Vialina (Lord Of England)
Owner: HJ Racing Team
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Breeder: Dr. Dr. Mario Hakim Abu-Id
Odds: 100,0
OR: 94
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 33
Jockey: Martin Seidl
Starting stall: 2
14 - GUEVARA
Alson x Guardian Fairy (Galileo)
Owner: Stall Hanse
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Stall Ullmann
Odds: 60,0
OR: 95
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 41
Jockey: Michael Cadeddu
Starting stall: 16
15 - ABACUS
Teofilo x Asoof (Dubawi)
Owner: Liberty Racing 2024 Platin
Trainerin: Sarah Steinberg
Breeder: South House Stud
Odds: 60,0
OR: 66
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 47
Starting stall: René Piechulek
16 - FOUR SEASONS
Japan x For Pleasure (Jukebox Jury)
Owner: Stall Hanse
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Gestüt Etzean
Odds: 50,0
OR: 69
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 34
Jockey: Esentur Turganaaly Uulu
Starting stall: 20
17 - WALADARES
Gleneagles x Wierland (Cape Cross)
Owner: Gestüt Ebbesloh
Trainer: Sarah Steinberg
Breeder: Gestüt Ebbeslohn
Odds: 60,0
OR: 97
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 25
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Starting stall: 11
18 - YACOMO
Yafta x Jeune Et Jolie (Verglas)
Owner: Andiamo Racing Club
Trainer: Fabian Xaver Weißmeier
Breeder: Abdullatif Yousfi
Odds: 60,0
OR: 99
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 48
Jockey: Giovanni Sias
Starting stall: 12
19 - IRON TRIUMPH
Cracksman x Puzzling (Peintre Celebre)
Owner: Ali Özdemir
Trainer: Stefanie Koyuncu
Breeder: Genesis Green Stud
Odds: 500,0
OR: 51
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 59
Jockey: Enzo Crublet
Starting stall: 1
Figures for the last 12 years
The average German Derby winner over the past 12 years went off at 10.24:1.
The last two winners started at 24.3:1 and 19.3:1 respectively. Time for a favourite again?
Nine times during this period, the winner paid out at less than 10:1.
Since 2014, the favourite has won the race on two occasions: LACCARIO (Scalo) and SEA THE MOON (Sea The Stars).
The average Derby winner started with a 4.6 on their saddlecloth, meaning they were already among the top of their year group before Hamburg (saddle cloth numbers are based of the current handicap marks).
Only SISFAHAN (Isfahan), five years ago, wore a start number higher than eight – 15 to be precise.
PALLADIUM (Gleneagles) won in 2024 with the number eight.
That’s all from me. Now it’s time for the Derby!
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Luis Kimmel
All photographs: Marc Rühl & Galoppfoto.de
