Ready for the Derby? - Derby Dozen III
- Luis Kimmel
- 21. Juni
- 13 Min. Lesezeit
All the big Derby tests have been run. In Munich, Düsseldorf, Baden-Baden, Cologne, trials for Hamburg were held everywhere. Unlike in the usual editions of my rankings, I am no longer just looking at potential. I am presenting my top 12 horses that are likely to actually compete in the Derby in two weeks.
Some foreigners are not included this time, as it is rather unlikely that they will start at Hamburg. There are a few more words on this at the very end.
As always, my ranking is of course purely subjective. Feel free to discuss it.
1 - DELGARDO
Best Solution x Delegation (Mount Nelson)
Owner: Stall Bergholz
Trainer: Andreas Wöhler
Breeder: Barbara Holubova
Odds: 60:10
Price BBAG-Yearling Sale: 43.000€
OR: 102
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 11
A new number one in in my ranking. The most important question in the Derby is always: can a horse stay the derby trip? And hardly any other horse from this crop has answered this question for me as clearly as the Best Solution-son from Andresa Wöhlers yard.
Since my last ranking, Delgardo won the listed-level Derby Trial over 2200 metres at Düsseldorf in impressive style. At the previous start Delgardo had already won over 2400 metres against the eventual G2 Union-Rennen runner-up HOCHKÖNIG (Polish Vulcano).
Andreas Wöhler's website said after his listed victory in Düsseldorf: "As a rider, you should always keep an eye on him. Not only at home but also in the race, as we saw again yesterday. If he had really gone for it without faffing about, his two victories would have been much more convincing. He has the ability, but he still lacks the maturity to play it out."
Only a little maturity and serenity separates Delgardo from a derby win. At the same time, it would be the all-important first Group 1 win for his father.
2 - PATH OF SOLDIER
Soldier Hollow x Path Wind (Anabaa)
Owner: Gestüt Park Wiedingen
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Stiftung Gestüt Fährhof
Odds: 70:10
Price BBAG-Yearling Sale: 64.000€
OR: 109
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 5
Has this ever happened before? Path Of Soldier is one of the logical Derby favourites, but was offered at auction just days ago! Around 1,000,000€ was offered for the half-brother of the reigning Derby winner at the Goffs London Sale. Too little for Helmut von Finck and so Path Of Soldier will in all probability start at Hamburg.
Of course, it is debatable whether a sale for such a sum would not make more sense. I say quite clearly: No! There would be even more money if we won the Derby. On top of that, of course, there would be the prize money of 390,000€.
Path Of Soldier's racing career has been almost flawless so far. He has never been unplaced and has never finished worse than second in group races. In the G3 JRA Derby Trial he was surprisingly defeated by the french guest JUWELIER (Wootton Bassett). "That can't be true," was not only heard from commentator Marvin Schridde, most of the bettors probably thought the same. Path Of Soldier went into the race at Iffezheim as the clear 2,2:1 favourite. Owner Helmut von Finck commented on the race afterwards: "He had by far the worst race, but showed that he can stay. Nobody would have beaten him over 2400 metres today. I think we can go to Hamburg with a good feeling."
Good that we will see him in Hamburg!
3 - ZUCKERHUT
Almanzor x Zamrud (Samum)
Owner: Rennstall Gestüt Hachtsee
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Gestüt Hachtsee
Odds: 75:10
OR: 110
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 22
If no strong foreigner comes, he will carry the prestigous "1" for the highest rated horse in the Derby. In the last ranking I had the son of Almanzor in 22nd place, why? His form before the G2 Union-Rennen was not convincing enough for me, but at the same time he was hyped from all sides. Now he has won the Union with aplomb and my opinion of him has changed dramatically. Even if the race still has to prove its Group 2 status this year.
Zuckerhut won like a Derby horse under Andrasch Starke. And was more superior than it looks on paper. I think the Rennstall Gestüt Hachtsee owned colt could have stepped up a gear at any time. It was the perfect preparation for Hamburg, so I don't think a reversal of form in the Bavarian Classic is impossible. When Path Of Soldier won, Zuckerhut finished fourth.
4 - LAZIO
Make Believe x La Caldera (Hernando)
Owner: Stall Lucky Owner
Trainer: Waldemar Hickst
Breeder: Roland Lerner
Odds: 150:10
Price BBAG-Yearling Sale: 30.000€
OR: 108
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 12
Lazio remains one of the most difficult Derby candidates for me. After his solid seasonal debut in the G3 Bavarian Classic, where he was only beaten by Path Of Soldier, he started in the G3 Prix Hocquart in France. Although he finished last there, he was less than four lengths behind the winner RAFALE DESIGN (Starspangledbanner) - who went on to win the G3 Prix du Lys. Incidentally, the latter also has a Derby nomination, but will almost certainly not be travelling to Hamburg. More on this at the end of my ranking. Lazio's french form is better than it looks at first glance. Nevertheless, he remains elusive: at the front or nowhere - that's my feeling for the Make Believe-son at Hamburg.
Striking: Lazio is the only German three-year-old colt with an entry for the G1 Grosser Dallmayr Preis.
A fast race in Hamburg will suit him.
5 - ENZIAN
Zarak x Eloge (Galileo)
Owner: Eckhard Sauren
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Breeder: Gestüt Röttgen
Odds: 500:10
Price BBAG-Yearling Sale: 160.000€
OR: 86
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 7
Enzian was an insider tip for me after his strong debut. Not only because of his top-class pedigree: Zarak as sire, the second dam a G1 German Oaks winner, plus the close relationship to top horses such as ERASMUS (Reliable Man), ERLE (Reliable Man), ELEGANZ (Adlerflug) and the unbeaten ENERGICO (Duramente) in Japan.
The first appearance at Hanover was thoroughly convincing. Enzian prevailed easily and with style against the experienced ZAFIRELLI (Study Of Man) - directly over 2200 metres. Like a real derby horse. But then came the G2 Union-Rennen. And the impression was simply disappointing. In sixth place, he remained completely pale and was unable to get involved in the race at any point. Under Thore Hammer Hansen, it was clear early on that this was not his day. His form raises questions - it doesn't match either his debut or the assessment we had after it. I'm inclined to scratch the running completely, that's how little was right about the performance.
The fact remains: The potential is there, but the Union was a real damper. It remains to be seen whether we can simply tick off the start.
Last year Hammer Hansen was able to win on a huge outsider, will history repeat itself in 2025? Enzian has the pedigree for it.
6 - ABANDO
Adlerflug x Amalie (Areion)
Owner: Gestüt Ittlingen
Trainer: Waldemar Hickst
Breeder: Gestüt Görlsdorf
Odds: 250:10
OR: 101
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 13
Only a few horses have impressed me as much visually this year as Abando. When I saw him in the parade ring at his debut at Düsseldorf, I immediately thought: this is a group horse. He was able to confirm this impression after finishing third behind ZAUBERKÖNIG (Teofilo) and Zafirelli. This form was good enough for me to give him a few euros on his way to Hamburg at the 50/1 antepost. Abando now went straight on to the group races. In the G3 Bavarian Classic, the son of Adlerflug had no chance of winning, but nevertheless ran a very decent race. Especially when you consider that it was only his second career start. He was only 3.5 lengths behind the winner Path Of Soldier and only 1.5 lengths behind the G2 Union-Rennen winner Zuckerhut. That is something to build on.
The Gestüt Hof Ittlingen-bred came to the start as a big outsider in the Union: 20,2:1. And on this day he knew how to convince. He still ran a little green but fought his way to an impressive third place. However, he never had anything to do with the victory. Incidentally, last year's derby winner was ‘only’ fourth in the Union.
Abando will be the last Derby starter for the great ADLERFLUG (In The Wings). It is welcome to rain.
7 - CONVERGENT
Fascinating Rock x Monty's Miracle (Shamardal)
Owner: Newton Anner Stud
Trainer: Karl Burke
Breeder: Newton Anner Stud Farm
Odds: 200:10
OR: 104
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 21
If a foreigner from the UK will be travelling to Hamburg, it will probably be Convergent.
What makes Convergent so interesting? On paper, he has clearly shown the best form. He was third in the G3 Chester Vase behind LAMBOURN (Australia) and LAZY GRIFF (Protectionist). Two weeks ago, these two were 1-2 in the G1 Epsom Derby. They now stand at OR 120 and 114 respectively. But the truth is that he never had anything to do with the win and second place was no question for the Fascinating Rock-son either. In Chester, Convergent was two lengths behind Lazy Griff.
His pedigree also raises a few questions. His sire was a Group 1 winner over 2000 metres and managed to win Group 3 over 2400 metres. Convergent's dam was a mediocre stayer and won a maiden race over 2800 metres. Convergent has a own-sister, MOLTEN ROCK, who was placed at Group 3 level in Germany. She was second to GEOGRAPHY (Holy Roman Emperor) in last year's G3 Fritz Henkel Preis over 1600 metres.
8 - HOCHKÖNIG
Polish Vulcano x Halinara (Kallisto)
Owner: Stall Cloverleaf
Trainer: Yasmin Almenräder
Breeder: Stall MarcRuehl.com
Odds: 90:10
OR: 108
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 27
Hochkönig is the surprise of the year and is sure to find many fans. The overall story simply fits with him. Trained by Yasmin Almenräder, who won the G2 German 2000 Guineas with MATILDA (Soldier Hollow), bred by Stall Marcruehl.com. And in the saddle will be Nina Baltromei, who started her jockey apprenticeship with Yasmin Almenräder just earlier this week. Over the past few months, she has established herself as one of the best female riders in the country.
But now to Hochkönig. I simply cannot imagine that POLISH VULCANO (Lomitas), who is based at Gestüt IDEE, could sire the Derby winner. Unfortunately, I can't really justify my doubts about his satying ability. Although his sire was a 2000 metre horse, he is of course by the great LOMITAS (Niniski). Hochkönig's dam won over the Derby distance and also produced a winner over 2200 metres.
Of course, I would like to see Hochkönig and his team place in the biggest race, but my feeling is that they will finish well outside the top 5.
9 - JUWELIER
Wootton Bassett x Gravitee (Galileo)
Owner: Hajro Jusufovic
Trainer: Alessandro & Guiseppe Botti
Breeder: Newton Anner Stud Farm
Odds:: 150:10
OR: 109
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 25
‘That can't be true,’ said race commentator Marvin Schridde when Juwelier was still in front at the 200 metre mark at Baden-Baden. Why couldn't it be true? Well, the preliminary form that Botti's protégé brought with him from France was rather manageable. His maiden win at Fontainebleau was followed by a rather meaningless fifth place in a listed race at Chantilly. There he went into the race as a 15/1 outsider.
If you haven't seen the G3 JRA Derby Trial or can't remember it, you should watch the video below. I have to admit, I had a bet on Path Of Soldier and when it came to the final bend, I thought to myself: ‘well, the Frenchman won't win’. Juwelier came into the final stretch with a big lead under Adrie de Vries, but then lost a lot of ground there, barely got round the corner and looked to my eye like he was out of the race. But nobody could get past him from behind. There were at least three horses battling for the win all the way down the straight. I still don't know how exactly he managed to win this race. Perhaps it was simply down to Adrie de Vries, who managed almost everything at this meeting. Juweliers start in the Derby is probably not yet certain. It is said that the owner wants to run, the trainer has other plans.
Juwelier has beaten the clear favourite for the Derby at Iffezheim. In Hamburg, the race goes another 400 metres further.
10 - SEDANO
Lope De Vega x Satomi (Teofilo)
Owner: Stall Grafenberg
Trainer: Waldemar Hickst
Breeder: Haras de Saint Pair
Odds: 350:10
OR: 100
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 26
Like Enzian, Sedano also disappointed a little in the G2 Union-Rennen. His two victories in France were impressive, even if the opposition was rather manageable. At the Arqana August Yearling Sale, the Lope De Vega-son cost an impressive 225,000€. A price that was certainly in order for his pedigree. His dam SATOMI (Teofilo) won the G2 Grosser Hansa Preis. Sedano's sire is one of the leading sires in Europe.
Sedano now has to justify his high purchase price on the racetrack. I would give him another chance in what is likely to be a very open Derby. Especially as he will certainly come to the start at attractive odds.
Follow Sedano on 3forONE
11 - ZAUBERKÖNIG
Teofilo x Zarzali (Hussonet)
Owner: Liberty Racing 2023 Kings
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Stiftung Gestüt Fährhof
Odds: 300:10
Price BBAG-Yearling Sale: 165.000€
OR: 104
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 10
‘Italian form should be treated with caution’ - that was my conclusion after Zauberkönig's victory in the Premio Emanuele Filiberto. After his 6th place in the G2 Derby Italiano, it can be said that this was not an entirely bad judgement. Although the son of Teofilo was only 3.5 lengths behind the winner MOLVENO (Almanzor) and the runner-up CRAZY SPIRIT (Phoenix Of Spain), the form comparison is nevertheless sobering. After all, Zauberkönig had outclassed Crazy Spirit by seven lengths at the previous start at Milan.
So what is the Derby form worth? Hard to say. The ground at Hamburg will be completely different to that at Rome. That alone will help him. Nevertheless, a sixth place in the Italian Derby has not been enough in recent years to be among the front runners at Hamburg. Nevertheless, I don't give him too much credit for his weak form on paper.
After the bitter injury of AQUAMAN (Cracksman), it is quite possible that Zauberkönig is now Liberty Racing's best chance for the Derby triple. After two Derby wins in a row, there will probably be two starters for Liberty Racing in 2025. In 2022, ASSISTENT (Sea The Moon) was the first Derby starter in the blue and gold colours. He finished fourth. Since its inception, Liberty Racing has always had at least one horse in the top 4 in the German Derby.
12 - ZAFIRELLI
Study Of Man x Zeb Un Nisa (Iffraaj)
Owner: Stall Onzo
Trainer: Sascha Smrczek
Breeder: Babolna Nemzeti Menesbirtok
Odds: 510:10
OR: 103
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 29
Even though I have not yet seen all the Derby candidates live, I am very sure that Zafirelli is the most beautiful horse of his year. A picture of a horse entered the parade ring for the G3 JRA Derby Trial at Baden-Baden three weeks ago. Prior to this start, his first at Group level, he achieved the feat of finishing second four times in a row. TULPAR (Counterattack), NEXT MINE (Dabirsim), Zauberkönig and Enzian were all decent horses in front of him.
The Study Of Man-son jumped off a little slowly at Baden-Baden and therefore found himself at the back of the field right from the start. However, he tackled well in the straight and finished in fifth place. He was only beaten just over a length by the winner. The 2400 metres at Hamburg will suit him and there will also be attractive odds for him. Another candidate who could surprise.
You can find Zafirelli's last races in the videos for the Zauberkönig, Enzian and Juwelier.
Probably not a start at Hamburg for...
LAZY GRIFF
Protectionist x Linarda (Rock Of Gibraltar)
Owner: Middleham Park Racing & G. Griffiths
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Breeder: Gestüt Westerberg
Odds: 150:10
Price BBAG-Yearling Sale: 75.000€
OR: 114
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 2
For me, this is already the horse of the year. It is very rare for a German-bred horse to reach an OR of 114 as early as June, and for a German-bred horse to finish second in the biggest of all derbies, the G1 Epsom Derby, is unprecedented. Even if ‘only’ second, this success joins the victories of DANEDREAM (Lomitas) and TORQUATOR TASSO (Adlerflug) in the Arc and GOLIATH (Adlerflug) in the King George.
Unfortunately, you read almost nothing about this in the German racing media. Reason enough for me to talk to Peter Rodde from Gestüt Westerberg, breeders of Lazy Griff. The interview will be available here in a few days.
NEW GROUND
New Bay x Gaining (American Post)
Owner: Juddmonte
Trainer: Henri-Francois Devin
Breeder: Juddmonte
Odds: 400:10
OR: 112
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 4
Fourth in the G1 Epsom Derby. Made up a lot of ground coming from the back of the field. For me, he is a real candidate for the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on soft ground. Next up for him will probably be the G1 Grand Prix de Paris. There he could meet Lazy Griff again.
TENNESSEE STUD
Wootton Bassett x In My Dreams (Sadler's Wells)
Owner: Coolmore & Westerberg
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Breeder: Ann Marie O'Brien
Odds: 400:10
OR: 112
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 1
Tennessee Stud was always number 1 in the two previous Derby Dozen editions, but now he is slipping a little despite his third place in the Epsom Derby. Lazy Griff and New Ground convinced me a little more in the English classic. Tennessee Stud will not be travelling to Hamburg, but to the G1 Irish Derby.
RAFALE DESIGN
Starspangledbanner x Fashion Design (Montjeu)
Owner: Laurent Dassault u.a.
Trainer: Yann Barberot
Breeder: Newstead Breeding
Odds: 350:10
OR: 106
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 20
2 million pounds was bid for Rafale Design at the Goffs London Sal. He was bought back. Crazy world. Just a day before the sale he won the G3 Prix du Lys at Chantilly. Hamburg is probably out of the question. For him, too, the road will probably lead to Longchamp in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris.
I had Yann Barberot's protégé in 6th place in the first derby dozen, but a weak seasonal debut prompted me to correct him to 20th place. In hindsight, a blatantly wrong decision. Oh well.
LIFETIMES
Gleneagles x La Petite Virginia (Königstiger)
Owner: Stall Hanse
Trainer: Peter Schiergen
Breeder: Stiftung Gestüt Fährhof
Price BBAG-Yearling Sale: 85.000€
Odds: 500:10
OR: 108
Position in the last Derby Dozen: 3
Lifetimes will not be starting in the derby. Now we have to hope that he can realise his full potential one day. He was always one of my favourites and never finished lower than fourth in my ranking.
Things are slowly getting serious when it comes to the Derby. Just two weeks until the gates open iat Hamburg. In the coming days it will probably also be decided whether a few foreigners will make the trip to Hamburg after all. It would be good for the race and especially for it's rating.
The next and final edition of my ranking will be published shortly before the Derby!
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