99 Days until the German Derby - Derby Dozen I

By the time I’ve finally finished my first list for the Derby, a process that easily takes 15 hours, I realise that winter is finally over. Today I’m presenting my current top 12 candidates for the G1 IDEE 157 German Derby on 5 July 2026.

How do I put my list together? I look at all the horses entered that have raced so far, watch virtually every race and ask myself whether they have enough stamina to finish in the lead after 2400 metres. The likelihood of a horse actually making the trip to Hamburg is irrelevant.

1 - KAIROS

Zarak x Kosmische (Fastnet Rock)

Owner: Liberty Racing 2024 Platin

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Breeder: Rashit Shaykhutdinov

Odds: 17/1

OR: 102

Kairos 2025 has raced twice. He has won both times and is therefore heading into his 3yo campaign still unbeaten. He made a huge impression on me right from his debut victory. On that occasion, he beat Abachi over 1850m at Cologne. Kairos seemed to get stronger with every metre as the race drew to a close.

He faced Abachi again in his second start. This time, it was a slightly closer race at Hanover at listed level over 2000m, but I liked his style here. It looked as though Abachi might turn the tables this time, but Kairos fought his way back and ultimately managed to put a comfortable quarter-length between himself and his rival.

Kairos hasn’t put a foot wrong so far, shouldn’t have any problems at Derby distance, and I also think he looks excellent.

Even before his start at Hanover, I secured him in the ante-post market for the Derby (30/1). A good bet so far.

2 - SHOSHOLOZA

Australia x Ecosse (Acclamation)

Owner: Rectory Road Holdings Ltd.

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien

Breeder: Whisperview Trading Ltd

Odds: 49/1

OR: At the second start, 2.75 lengths behind Pierre Bonnard. He stands at 113

Any horse that finishes just under three lengths behind the current favourite for the G1 Epsom Derby in its second start naturally belongs on my list.

On his debut, Shosholoza won straight away, and by 5.5 lengths. The son of Australia made his aforementioned second start in the G1 Criterium de Saint Cloud over 2000m, the race his trainer went on to win in 2024 with TENNESSEE STUD (Wootton Bassett). Incidentally, I had him at number one in my first rankings exactly a year ago. He didn’t make it to Hamburg, but he did go to Epsom. There, he finished third in the Derby.

Shosholoza has also been entered for the English Derby, as well as the Irish Derby.

He comes from the family of Group 1 winner ROMANTICA (Galileo). Australia sired last years Irish and Epsom Derby winner Lambourn.

Incidentally, in recent years I had the eventual Derby winner FANTASTIC MOON (Sea The Moon) and the runner-up in the 2025 Epsom Derby, LAZY GRIFF (Protectionist), in second place in my rankings.

3 - MALTESE CROSS

Sea The Stars x Nabatea (Camelot)

Owner: George Waud

Trainer: William Haggas

Breeder: Ecurie Du Sud & Ecurie Gribomont

Odds: 49/1

OR: No rating yet. With just one win to his name, he finished a nose ahead of Del Maro (OR 101)

The list continues with a horse from a foreign stable. The attentive reader will have noticed that none of the horses presented so far have been bred in Germany. Maltese Cross, too, was not bred in Germany. His dam, however, was bred in Germany by Jürgen Imm and has already produced a listed-placed mare in NAMOURIA (Adlerflug).

Maltese Cross’s second dam is the outstanding broodmare NEELE (Peintre Celebre). She has sired no fewer than two Group 1 winners. NUTAN (Duke Of Marmelade) won the 2015 German Derby for Stall Nizza nd the Imm family.

The Derby could also be a target for Maltese Cross. Two starts, one win is the record so far for the Sea The Stars son, who is bred like a Derby winner. He demonstrated that he possesses some talent in his only victory to date against DEL MARO (Wootton Bassett), a horse from Gestüt Brümmerhof. Maltese Cross beat him by a head. Del Maro subsequently placed in a Group 3 race, finishing 2.5 lengths behind the aforementioned Epsom Derby favourite PIERRE BONNARD (Camelot).

Maltese Cross has, of course, also been entered for the Epsom Derby. A start at Hamburg is rather unlikely.

4 - MR VETTORI

Lope De Vega x Celestial Object (Galileo)

Owner: Newton Anner Stud

Trainer: Jessica Harrington

Breeder: Newton Anner Stud

Odds: 79/1

OR: 91

In 2025, fourth place in my rankings went to LIFETIMES (Gleneagles), who had long been tipped as the Derby favourite. At that point, he was still unbeaten in two starts and had convincingly won the G3 Preis des Winterfavoriten.

On paper, Mr Vettori does not yet have as much to show for himself as Lifetimes once did. In two starts, the Lope De Vega son has won once. Over 1700m at Gowran Park, he left several Coolmore horses behind in a combative display. On that day, as in his previous start, he still looked very green.

In his previous start, he was beaten by just 1.5 lengths by the eventual Group 1 winner HAWK MOUNTAIN (Wootton Bassett) from Aidan O’Brien’s stable.

Mr Vettori is bred and owned by Newton Anner Stud. A household name among racing fans in Germany since the 2025 Derby at the latest. In the Derby, CONVERGENT (Fastnet Rock) narrowly missed out on victory, finishing second only to HOCHKÖNIG (Polish Vulcano) in a nail biter.

5 - ABACHI

Japan x Amora (High Chaparral)

Owner: Stall Nizza

Trainer: Peter Schiergen

Breeder: Ursula & Jürgen Imm

Odds: 24/1

OR: 101

Here he is at last, the first thoroughly German contender on my list. Anyone who read my last article on the Derby will know what 14 of the last 15 Derby winners have in common. If you haven’t read the article, you can catch up here: A first look at the 2026 German Derby – Derby Dozen 0

Unlike the four horses already mentioned, the statistics I’m referring to also apply to Abachi: bred in Germany, owned by Germans and trained in Germany.

In three starts, he has won once, though he made things more exciting than necessary at Hanover due to an unfavourable race. In his other starts, he has only been beaten twice by my number 1, Kairos.

Unfortunately, a start in the G3 Herzog von Ratibor-Rennen was cancelled at short notice. This start could have clarified several questions at once. We would have known just how good Kairos and Abachi really are, and also what to make of LOMMI (Churchill). Sauren’s protégé went on to win the Ratibor-Rennen very comfortably in the end. However, the competition was rather limited due to Abachi’s non-appearance. As a result, he has only managed to reach 16th place in my rankings so far.

This means that the question of just how good Abachi is will have to be put on hold for a little while longer. In all likelihood, until 1 May. The son of Japan has been entered for the G2 Bavarian Classic.

6 - GOSTAM

Saxon Warrior x Goiania (Oasis Dream)

Owner: Darius Racing & Michael Motschmann

Trainer: Andreas Wöhler

Breeder: Stiftung Gestüt Fährhof

Odds: 10,0

OR: 112

Here he is at last, the superstar two-year-old Gostam. The current Derby favourite was at odds of 7/1 with the bookmakers at times over the winter.

It has been clearly stated that Gostam will kick off the season in the G2 Bavarian Classic. After that, the plan is to head towards the G1 Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly rather than Hamburg. The French Derby is run over just 2100 metres, which should suit Gostam better.

In my opinion, we have a really good horse in Gostam here in Germany, and I believe he is capable of performing very well at international level too. However, I don’t think he is well suited to the Derby distance. That is why he only comes sixth in my rankings.

Given his class, I believe he is capable of finishing in the top six at Hamburg as well. However, I would prefer to see him in the G2 German 2000 Guineas, the French Derby and the G1 Dallmayr Preis.

If it turns out that he can indeed handle 2400m, he will be very hard to beat.

7 - WILD RIVER

Lope De Vega x Wildfeder (Galileo)

Owner: Stall Hanse & Klaus Allofs & Michael Motschmann

Trainer: Peter Schiergen

Breeder: Gestüt Ammerland

Odds: 29

OR: 74

With Wild River, the story of the highly successful Gestüt Ammerland in Germany comes to an end. He made his debut in September, still sporting the world-famous red and green colours, the very colours that carried WALDGEIST (Galileo) to victory in the Arc in 2019 and BORGIA (Acatenango) to victory in the German Derby in 1997 and the Hong Kong Vase.

Wild River is now owned by Stall Hanse, Klaus Allofs and Michael Motschmann.

On his debut, the powerful Lope De Vega son finished third behind SOMI (Magna Grecia) and TRUE LION (Amaron). The latter went on to take second place in the G3 Herzog von Ratibor-Rennen towards the end of the year.

Wild River benefited enormously from his debut and went on to win his next start. And last Sunday, this form was further enhanced by a convincing victory by Weekend Warrior. Wild River comfortably relegated him to second place in his victory in November.

Wild River is exceptionally well-bred. There is little more to say about Lope De Vega, himself a Derby winner in France 16 years ago. Sire of 25 individual Group 1 winners.

Wild River’s dam, Wildfeder, is a full sister to the Arc winner Waldgeist, who stands at Gestüt Lünzen.

8 - SALITOS

In Swoop x Sacre Fleur (Acclamation)

Owner: Liberty Racing 2024 Gold

Trainer: Peter Schiergen

Breeder: Klaus Schöler

Odds: 14/1

OR: 82

Six years ago, IN SWOOP won the German Derby against TORQUATOR TASSO (both by Adlerflug). Later that year, the Schlenderhan-owned colt was beaten only by SOTTSASS (Siyouni) in the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Tasso won the race a year later. In hindsight, the 2020 Derby was arguably one of the best ever in terms of the first and second-placed horses.

Now, with Salitos, the next generation is in the starting blocks. For In Swoop, who now serves as a National Hunt stallion for Coolmore, he is currently the most important figurehead.

The Liberty Racing protégé made his debut on 27 December on the all-weather at Chantilly. He really picked up pace in the final metres and finished second. This performance has not yet been properly rated.

Two months later, Salitos won on turf at Fontainebleau. He had to fight for position in the home straight, really went for it and pulled away by 2.25 lengths. The problem here too: the opposition wasn’t exactly top-class. The runner-up finished third in his next start, whilst the third- and fourth-placed horses finished ninth and twelfth in their next races.

Let’s see where things go from here for Salitos, who did start the season very early. A start at Le Mans in France was cancelled at short notice last week. He has not yet been entered for a race in Germany.

Incidentally, Torquator Tasso has his first two-year-olds on the track this year and will therefore make his debut as a sire in the Derby in 2027.

9 - SANTA CATARINA

Zarak x Sconset (Soldier Hollow)

Owner: Eckhard Sauren

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Breeder: Gestüt Ebbesloh

Odds: 49/1

OR: 80

I’ve already found the right words to describe Santa Catarina in my article on the 2025 German champions. If you’d like to read it all again: Germany’s best racehorses of 2025

I always find fillies that have been entered for the Derby particularly interesting, especially with an eye on the German Oaks. That’s why I secured her ante-post at 29/1 back in January. Santa Catarina, the favourite for the Oaks, is now at 14/1.

For me, Santa Catarina was quite clearly the best two-year-old filly in Germany. She impressed me enormously in her only start. SOREANGA (Siyouni), who finished second on that occasion, went on to win a listed race against the colts by 2.5 lengths in her next start. Behind her, the eventual Ferdinand Leisten Memorial (Germanys biggest auction race worth 200.000 €) winner LOUCAS (Best Solution) and the eventual third-place finisher in the G3 Preis des Winterfavoriten took second and third places. The two now have ratings of 100 and 98 respectively. Based on these and Soreanga, Santa Catarina would have an OR of +/- 107.

All of this is, of course, purely theoretical for now.

The fact that there is a fair amount of opinion within her team is evident not only from her Derby entry. She has also been entered for the G1 Prix de Diane.

10 - LIMESTONE

New Bay x Modernstone (Duke Of Marmelade)

Owner: Valmont & Ballylinch Stud & Al Shaqab Racing

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien

Breeder: Ballylinch Stud

Odds: 79/1

OR: 98

Third, second, first. That’s Limestone’s record so far. Another Irish contender on my list. The horse that finished fourth on Limestone’s debut (Hardy Warrior) has since won twice and is also entered for the Blue Ribbon at Hamburg. The winner BENVENUTO CELLINI (Frankel) and runner-up ENDORSEMENT (Wootton Bassett) went on to finish in the top three in Group 1 and Group 3 races respectively. Limestone was also beaten by 1.75 lengths by this same Endorsement in his next start. Endorsement subsequently finished second behind the current favourite for the English Derby, PIERRE BONNARD (Camelot), in the G3 Zetland Stakes.

Limestone took the lead in his third start at Listowel. There, over 1600m carrying top weight, he finished half a length ahead of the runner-up. The third-placed horse was a further 7.5 lengths behind.

Limestone’s dam, Modernstone, carried a GAG of 89.5kg and produced LONE EAGLE (Galileo), who finished second in the 2021 G1 Irish Derby.

11 - WEEKEND WARRIOR

Japan x Whispering Angel (Soldier Hollow)

Owner: Eckhard Sauren

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Breeder: Gestüt Park Wiedingen

Odds: 24/1

OR: 80

Weekend Warrior’s first victory will surely remain fresh in everyone’s memory. It was only last Sunday that the son of Japan broke his maiden over 2100m at Mülheim. The field didn’t seem particularly strong, and LANDOLFO (Japan) in particular left me somewhat disappointed.

It was more the manner in which Weekend Warrior managed to win that impressed me. He emerged quite leisurely from the starting gate and was placed in last position by Thore Hammer-Hansen. In the final bend, the pair easily overtook the entire field and quickly pulled away by several lengths. At the finish line, he was 4.75 lengths ahead of Landolfo and VARLEY (Japan), both of whom are also entered in the Derby and now stand at 36th and 39th in my rankings.

After the race, trainer Henk Grewe named the Derby Italiano and the Union-Rennen (both Group 2) as possible options for Eckhard Sauren’s charge.

Weekend Warrior’s dam, WHISPERING ANGEL (Soldier Hollow), won the G3 Preis der Winterkönigin in 2018 and has already produced a 110 runner in WILKO (Mastercraftsman). Two years ago, Wilko won the G3 Bavarian Classic and finished second in the G3 JRA Derby Trial before coming seventh in the Derby. Last year, he first won the listed Preis von Dahlwitz. He finished second in the G2 Grosser Preis von Tattersalls at Baden-Baden.

12 - MYSTIC CHARLY

Circus Maximus x Mystic Sunshine (Maxios)

Owner: Stall Mandarin

Trainer: Andreas Wöhler

Breeder: Stiftung Gestüt Fährhof & Flaxman Stables

Odds: 24/1

OR: 74

Twelve months ago, this spot in my rankings was occupied by LAZIO (Make Believe), who went on to finish third in the Derby.

For 2026, I have chosen Andreas Wöhler’s charge MYSTIC CHARLY (Circus Maximus). According to his trainer, he won his only start as a two-year-old purely on the strength of his class.

The race in question took place on 19 October at Baden-Baden and, on paper at least, looked like one of the best maiden races of the year. Mystic Charly prevailed in commanding fashion at the finish. He took the lead as early as the 600-metre mark and never relinquished it.

“Oh, that’s a really, really good horse,” commented race-caller Marvin Schridde as Mystic Charly crossed the finish line.

The colt owned by Stall Mandarin could now be headed for the G2 Bavarian Classic. And there, stablemate Gostam awaits.

Wo ist eigentlich...?

As the name suggests, the Derby Dozen features only the top 12. But of course, I’ve given some thought to all the horses. Or at least to those that have already raced. Here, I’d like to mention a few more names that some of you might have missed.

14 CHIEFLAND (Study Of Man) - Liberty Racing 2024 Gold - Henk Grewe

16 LOMMI (Lope De Vega) - Eckhard Sauren - Henk Grewe

21 HANDSHAKE (Sea The Moon) - Becher/Ullmann/Kortüm - Joseph O'Brien

24 WINGS OF GLORY (Oasis Dream) - Liberty Racing 2024 Platin - Henk Grewe

25 SPEZIALIST (Protectionist) - Stall Mandarin - Yasmin Almenräder

Promising Derby contenders yet to make their debut:

AKTIVIST (Victor Ludorum) – son of Group 2 winner AKRIBIE (Reliable Man)

ALL SQUARE (Gleneagles) – half-brother to Group-placed AGUIRRE (Camelot)

ALTER MEISTER (Japan) – half-brother to the 2021 Derby runner-up ALTER ADLER (Adlerflug)

LONGHI (Sea The Moon) – half-brother to the 2019 Derby winner LACCARIO (Scalo)

SWORD NATHAN (Nathaniel) – half-brother to Group 2 winner Satomi (Teofilo)

ASA NORTE (Protectionist) – half-sister to multiple Group winner ARCANDI (Zarak)

As always, the first edition of my Derby Dozen is the most difficult. It is hard to compare form from abroad with that in Germany; many horses make a huge leap from two to three years of age, and so on and so forth.

So, for now, this is merely a snapshot. There will be quite a few changes here in the coming weeks and months.

If you fancy a look back at last year, you can find my Derby Dozen I from 2025 here: Is it Derby time again?

That’s all from me for now. To stay up to date, why not follow me on Twitter / Instagram / Facebook / TikTok!

Luis Kimmel